Technological innovation is on the brink of fuelling momentous change throughout the global economy, generating great benefits and challenges, in equal measure. So says the chairman of the World Economic Forum. He describes what he calls 'the fourth industrial revolution', which is based on three sets of megatrends: physical, digital and biological. To thrive in this environment, he argues, public-private research collaborations should increase, and should be structured towards building knowledge and human capital to the benefit of all.
HBR asked top management thinkers to share what they were resolved to accomplish in 2011. Here are their answers: Joseph E. Stiglitz will be crafting a new postcrisis paradigm for macroeconomics whereby rational individuals interact with imperfect and asymmetric information. Herminia Ibarra will be looking for hard evidence of how "soft" leadership creates value. Eric Schmidt will be planning to scale mobile technology by developing fast networks and providing low-cost smartphones in the poorest parts of the world. Michael Porter will be using modern cost accounting to uncover-and lower-the real costs of health care. Vijay Govindarajan will be trying to prototype a $300 house to replace the world's poorest slums, provide healthy living, and foster education. Dan Ariely will be investigating consumers' distaste for genetically modified salmon, synthetic pharmaceuticals, and other products that aren't "natural." Laura D. Tyson will be promoting the establishment of a national infrastructure investment bank. Esther Duflo will be striving to increase full immunization in poor areas of India. Clay Shirky will be studying how to design internet platforms that foster civility. Klaus Schwab will be undertaking to create a Risk Response Network through which decision makers around the world can pool knowledge about the risks they face. Jack Ma will be working to instill a strong set of values in his 19,000 young employees and to help clean up China's environment. Thomas H. Davenport will be researching big judgment calls that turned out well and how organizations arrived at them. A.G. Lafley will be proselytizing to make company boards take leadership succession seriously. Eleven additional contributors to the Agenda, along with special audio and video features, can be found at hbr.org/2011-agenda.
The industralized world has been undergoing a crisis during the last three years--its worst since 1945. Even now, as the long-awaited recovery finally begins to gather momentum, it is failing to make itself felt in the most critical domain: employment. In Europe, unemployment is expected to continue increasing, probably until the end of 1995. The authors argue that the failure of the current recovery to translate into a significant improvement in employment is evidence that what the world has been going through is not merely a crisis but also an economic revolution. Perhaps the most spectacular component of this revolution is the shift in the world economy's center of gravity to Asia. These changes are creating new rules and necessitating a new modus operandi for the key players in the world economy. If they play by those rules, the authors argue, there is no reason to think they cannot bring about a period of widespread prosperity similar to the one following World War II.