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Global Asset Allocation: Whither the U.S. Dollar?
In April 2009, Rashonda Williams, responsible for global asset allocation at a large pension fund, had to decide whether the increase the allocation to foreign securities. A primary factor influencing her decision was her view on the likely path of the U.S. dollar over the next 5 to 10 years. Were we on the verge of a massive repatriation of U.S. investors' foreign portfolios? Would foreign central banks begin to diversify away from dollars? Was the dollar (and other major currencies) so undervalued that the Group of Seven (G7) might contemplate coordinated currency intervention? Williams's assessment of these issues would be a large factor in her overall assessment: Should she recommend to the board that it increase the allocation to foreign securities, or should it take this opportunity to repatriate profits and increase the weight on U.S. securities?