The case examines Levi Strauss' journey in implementing machine learning and AI into its financial forecasting process. The apparel company partnered with the IT company Wipro in 2017 to develop a machine learning algorithm that could help Levi Strauss forecast its revenues and earnings. The CFO of Levi Strauss, Harmit Singh, believed incorporating AI and machine learning into Levi Strauss' forecasting process would make the process more efficient and the resulting forecasts more accurate. While the algorithm led to more accurate forecasts, there were challenges to implementing and interpreting the AI-produced forecasts.
In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a workforce of 160,000 in 2020, AB InBev grappled with the repercussions of the pandemic, particularly the adverse effects on on-trade customers like bars and restaurants. Historically a traditional firm in a conventional industry, AB InBev had begun a substantial digital transformation in recent years. This strategic shift was aimed at leveraging data and market insights more effectively. A key component of this transformation was the creation of the Growth Analytics Center (GAC) in India in 2016, a move designed to embed advanced forecasting and analytics into their business model. As the pandemic unfolded, management increasingly relied on the GAC's analytics and forecasts to navigate the evolving crisis. With pandemic restrictions starting to relax in mid-2021, the company began considering substantial investments in the struggling on-trade sector to gain market share. The company considered offering grants in the form of pre-paid discounts to pubs and restaurants that needed capital to reopen after the pandemic. The dilemma was whether to proactively reinvest in the on-trade sector or take a cautious approach. The decision rested on interpreting GAC data and the company's financial outlook.
As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs' founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working capital, and explore financing options. birddogs was a nascent direct-to-consumer apparel brand that had carved its niche in men's athletic shorts. The firm was coming off a stellar year, having more than doubled its sales over the previous year. This swift expansion, however, wasn't without its fair share of challenges-primarily in managing working capital, with inventory being the chief concern. The speed of birddogs' growth caught its inventory management off-guard, resulting in out-of-stock situations for about one-third of its products during 2017. Historically, the company had followed a conservative approach to inventory investment, which often led to stockouts. Baldwin had always favored this prudent approach to ensure the company did not overextend itself. Yet, times were changing. Encouraged by the prospect of increased visibility from upcoming publicity, Baldwin and Sullivan began to entertain the idea of a bolder, more aggressive investment strategy. The future was bright, and they were prepared to seize it.
As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs' founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working capital, and explore financing options. birddogs was a nascent direct-to-consumer apparel brand that had carved its niche in men's athletic shorts. The firm was coming of a stellar year, having more than doubled its sales over the previous year. This swift expansion, however, wasn't without its fair share of challenges-primarily in managing working capital, with inventory being the chief concern. The speed of birddogs' growth caught its inventory management off-guard, resulting in out-of-stock situations for about one-third of its products during 2017. Historically, the company had followed a conservative approach to inventory investment, which often led to stockouts. Baldwin, had always favored this prudent approach to ensure the company did not overextend itself. Yet, times were changing. Encouraged by the prospect of increased visibility from upcoming publicity, Baldwin and Sullivan began to entertain the idea of a bolder, more aggressive investment strategy. The future was bright, and they were prepared to seize it.
In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)-a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,-was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc, featuring the results of Aviva's performance in the Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario (CBES) exercise mandated by the Bank of England. The CBES required all major banks and insurers in the country to formally assess the financial risks arising from both the physical impacts of climate change and the transition to a net zero economy. As Carr was in the final stages of refining and updating the CBES findings, he and his team were tasked with discerning how potential climate change consequences might influence each element on Aviva's balance sheet. Additionally, the team was charged with not only evaluating the existing assets and liabilities on Aviva's balance sheet, but also pondering the future operations of the business. Carr was aware that assessing climate risk was a complex task, fraught with its unique set of challenges and limitations. He was prepared to further discuss these issues, as he knew the board would be keen to delve deeper into their intricacies.
The leadership team at QNB Alahli, Egypt's second biggest private bank, looked back on their efforts to create a brand-new, fully digital banking platform since 2019. A digital-only banking service was unprecedented in Egypt, a country where over 90% of financial transactions still involved cash. If successful, QNB Alahli would enjoy the first-mover advantage and help improve the level of financial inclusion in the Egyptian society. The bank had developed comprehensive financial projections for the new platform, and its confidence was bolstered by the successful launch of a similar platform by its sister bank in Turkey. Before the proposal could be approved by the central bank, QNB Alahli needed to carefully consider various strategies for this venture, as the decisions made could significantly impact the bank's profitability, marketing efforts, and internal competition.
Total shareholder return (TSR) has become the definitive metric for gauging performance. Unlike accounting measures such as revenue growth or earnings per share that reflect the past, TSR is based on share price and thus captures investor expectations of what will happen in the future, which is its chief attraction. The problem is that TSR conflates performance associated with strategy and operations with that arising from cash distributions (dividends and buybacks). In this article, the authors discuss the distortions embedded in TSR and propose a new metric, core operating shareholder returns, that emphasizes operational performance. It also provides a comprehensive assessment of the buyback revolution--and the verdict is quite damning.
The case follows Ashraf Abu Issa, CEO and chairman of Abu Issa Holding (AIH), as he contemplated the fate of his company's regional expansion. AIH was a Qatari diversified holding company, whose primary business was luxury retailing and distribution. Abu Issa had set his company on a path of aggressive regional expansion since 2012, rapidly opening new stores in neighboring countries, most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In July 2017, he woke up to the news that Saudi Arabia along with the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt had imposed a blockade on Qatar, cutting diplomatic relations with the country as well as closing all movements of people, goods and money between their countries and Qatar. A year into the blockade the situation was rapidly deteriorating, Abu Issa was at a crossroads: Should he wait for the blockade to end? Or was now the right time to exit and focus on the Qatari market at home? If he chose to exit, could he find a new investor to buy the business at a discount? Or should he close his shops and move as much as their inventory and staff as possible to Qatar? If he chose to exit, what would be the best way to do so?
In late 2017, Satrix, one of the largest passive asset management firms in South Africa and a pioneer in the industry since 2000, had to decide its strategy going forward in a market where passive asset management had become increasingly commoditized and competitive. Over the previous three years, as a result of increased competition and changing investor expectations, Satrix had faced increased pressure to reduce its management fees. The total expense ratio (TER) of the Satrix 40, Satrix's flagship ETF, was 38 basis points (bps), more than double that of many of its new competitors. To maintain the company's position in the industry, Satrix's leadership was considering cutting the TER on its flagship ETF by almost 75% from 38 bps to 10 bps. The fee change would dramatically lower Satrix's margins, but the company's leadership was concerned that Satrix couldn't afford to not make the change; nearly 10% of assets the company managed came from the Satrix 40. What should they do?
McDonald's reported its fifth consecutive quarter of declining same-store sales growth in early 2015. Despite McDonald's recent poor performance, Jonathon S. Jacobson, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Boston-based Highfields Capital Management, had initiated a large position in McDonald's stock. Jacobson and his team believed that there was enormous upside in McDonald's stock if management successfully implemented what they perceived to be straightforward operational and financial changes. McDonald's needed to return to its core competencies of producing quick and reliable burgers and fries. In addition, they believed that financial restructuring could unlock sizable value for investors. Jacobson and his team debated whether to more forcefully articulate their vision for the company and began drafting a letter to Andrew McKenna, McDonald's Chairman.
A growing number of organizations-particularly in the public sector-are embracing behavioral insights to design and enhance their products, policies and services. The challenge is this: Their leaders and workers are human too, and are therefore influenced by the same heuristics and biases that they are attempting to address in customers. The authors-from the world renowned Behavioral Insights Team-introduce three core activities of policy making and strategy-making in any industry: noticing, deliberating and executing. In the article they focus on the first two stages-noticing and deliberating-and present some of the most important behavioral insights within each category-including confirmation bias and framing effects. They then provide tools to mitigate common biases.