As firms strive to lead through innovation, they face the twin challenges of how to unify seemingly contradictory perspectives. The first is the desire to bring genuinely new products to market and follow a "market-driven" approach to product development, which often tends to be conservative in nature. The second is avoiding the "innovator's dilemma," or becoming the prisoner of a once-but-no-longer successful technology due to the emergence of an apparently "disruptive" newer technology. Presents a framework for helping organizations simultaneously deal with these two issues, which are rooted in the understanding that while firms may produce a set of (technical) features, consumers purchase benefits. However, since most benefits are generic in nature, the core "technologies" on which innovations are based--what we describe as meta-technologies--are also generic in nature. By focusing their efforts on meta-technologies, firms can be innovative while remaining sensitive to customer needs and simultaneously be market-driven and "market-driving." This perspective offers a potential solution to the "innovator's dilemma," since at the benefit level technologies are rarely disruptive, but rather "continuous" and evolutionary. Firms that seeks to develop successful and sustainable strategies for innovation must identify these generic, or "meta-technologies," and then design and deliver new products that are based on them.

Our annual survey of ideas and trends that will make an impact on business: Duncan J. Watts contends that ordinary people, not "influentials," drive social epidemics. Yoshito Hori predicts that Japan's young entrepreneurs could outshine those in China and India. Frederic Dalsace, Coralie Damay, and David Dubois propose brands that--like Harry Potter--mature with their customers. Michael Schrage reveals the hidden value in long-forgotten equations. Harry Hutson and Barbara Perry put hope back in the executive repertoire. Eric von Hippel spotlights Denmark, where "user-centered innovation" is a national priority. Linda Stone detects a backlash against cell-phone and BlackBerry addiction. Michael C. Mankins suggests where to put all that excess cash. Ap Dijksterhuis reaffirms the value of sleeping on a decision. Robert G. Eccles, Liv Watson, and Mike Willis report on a new software standard that will make business and financial information dramatically easier to generate, aggregate, and analyze. Geoffrey B. West challenges the conventional wisdom that smaller innovation functions are more inventive. Karen Fraser warns of apparently loyal customers who are poised to bolt for ethical reasons. Phillip Longman predicts the return of large patriarchal families and their effects on marketing strategy. Rashi Glazer illustrates the sociocultural and business implications of nanotechnology. Yoko Ishikura urges global firms to "think locally." Klaus Kleinfeld and Erich Reinhardt explore the convergence of imaging technology and biotech and its enormous benefits for medical care. Christopher Meyer advises focusing on what you want from your network before you build the platform. Charles R. Morris asserts that health care costs are falling; it's spending that's on the rise. Clay Shirky shows why open source projects succeed by failing. David Weinberger claims that accountability has morphed into superstitious "accountabalism."

You are a marketing director with $5 million to invest in customer acquisition and retention. Which customers do you acquire, and which do you retain? Up to a point, the choice is obvious: Keep the consistent big spenders and lose the erratic small ones. But what about the erratic big spenders and the consistent small ones? It's often unclear whether you should acquire or retain them and at what cost. Businesses have begun dealing with unpredictable customer behavior by following the practices of sophisticated investors who own portfolios comprising dozens of stocks with different, indeed divergent, histories and prospects. Each portfolio is diversified so as to produce the investor's desired returns at the particular level of uncertainty he or she can tolerate. Customers, too, are assets--risky assets. As with stocks, the cost of acquiring them is supposed to reflect the cash-flow values they are likely to generate. The authors explain how to construct a portfolio based on the notion that a customer's risk-adjusted lifetime value depends on its anticipated effect on the riskiness of the group it is joining. The concept of risk-adjusted lifetime value has a transforming power: For companies that rely on it, product managers will be replaced by customer managers, and the current method of accounting for profit and loss--which is by product--will be replaced by one that determines each customer's P&L. Once adjusted for risk, those P&Ls will become the firm's key performance and operational metric.