This reading provides an introduction to forecasting methods. It includes a brief summary of methods based on judgment and a longer section on quantitative analysis. It also provides sample data so readers can develop an understanding of concepts such as correlation, covariance, time-series data, moving averages, exponential smoothing, time-series decomposition, trend estimation, simple linear regression, autocorrelation, and multiple linear regression.
Baria Planning Solutions (BPS) is a consulting firm that specializes in using spend analysis to help companies identify savings through reduced procurement costs and improved supplier performance. Management is concerned about the disappointing performance of the sales team in attaining new clients and renewing existing ones. The Sales directors feel they do not get the help they need from Sales Support to close new deals, while the Sales Support directors believe they could provide better support by organizing into industry-specific divisions. The consulting industry is becoming increasingly competitive and inefficiencies in the sales process at BPS may interfere with the company's ability to win new business. The recently hired director of North American Sales Support must analyze the current process flow for Sales Support and identify the problems facing the sales organization. The president of the company has asked her to present a proposal for improving the performance of the entire group.
The Morrison Company develops and manufactures radio frequency identification tags (RFID) known as "smart labels" for the retail and pharmaceutical industries. RFID technology is a fast-growing and increasingly competitive industry. Sales have risen dramatically over the past year and production levels have had to increase to meet monthly and quarterly shipping targets. However, the increase has exacerbated existing manufacturing problems and has led to increased shipping delays and inadequate inventory on hand. In addition, sales to pharmaceutical companies are increasing while sales to retail companies are much lower than forecast. The newly hired director of operations must address the short-term problems quickly and devise a long-term solution for improving the company's operational capabilities.
AIC Systems, located in Taichung, Taiwan, is a manufacturer of printed circuit boards, primarily for motherboards and video cards for personal computers. The firm is considered an original design manufacturer (ODM) and takes an active role in innovating and designing each new generation of components. By doing in-house design and development, the company has been able to foster exclusive, long-term relationships with its customers. The firm decides to diversify its portfolio to include consumer electronics with a particular focus on mobile technology. The goal is to move from manufacturing components for other computer companies to developing the firm's own line of branded consumer electronics. The new "netbook" market provides an opportunity for AIC Systems to design and manufacture a branded product in the mobile electronics industry. The production manager has created an assembly line for producing the new netbooks, and after three months of production he must consider ways to improve efficiency and reduce production costs. Students must perform a quantitative analysis of the existing assembly-line system and make recommendations to reach optimal efficiency.
Scientific Glassware is a fast-growing, privately held company that provides specialized glassware for laboratory and research facilities. Excess inventory is tying up extra capital needed to fund the company's expansion plans. The newly hired Manager of Inventory Planning is tasked with developing an effective strategy for managing inventory without requiring additional capital investment. The company has launched several initiatives, such as adding a dedicated domestic sales force, which directly affect inventory requirements. At the same time, the company has announced a commitment to improve customer responsiveness and reduce the "fill rate," the time it takes to fulfill new orders. These changes may require adding warehouses or outsourcing fulfillment services. This case focuses on the business challenges of inventory control and order processing, particularly the tradeoffs between centralized and decentralized inventories. Students must complete a quantitative analysis of the costs and benefits of several alternatives.
Demand for folding and stackable chairs and tables at FoldRite Furniture Co. is unexpectedly strong. The company spent the previous two years improving manufacturing quality and efficiency, dropping poor-performing product lines, developing new products that are stylish and environmentally friendly, and instituting a program that allows customers to customize their orders and still get delivery within two weeks. As a result, sales interest in the new products is higher than forecast, in the U.S. and in Europe, where favorable exchange rates make American products highly competitive. In response to the surge in demand, Martin Kelsey, the production manager, must create a manufacturing plan that controls manufacturing and inventory costs, mitigates risk, and aligns with the strategic goals of the company. Students must complete a quantitative assignment as part of case analysis.
While facilitating a complex clinical approval process over the next two to three years for a family of new cancer drugs, Genentech must develop a long-term capacity plan for a major class of new cancer products. Adding to the complexity and uncertainty is the fact that the lead time for planning, building, and certifying a new $600 million plus production-scale facility is five years. In addition, ensuring that the best process technology is incorporated into such a new plant makes the task facing David Ebersman, the senior vice-president of products operations, and his management team a daunting one. Frames the issues Ebersman and his team face and outlines the approach to date.
Scharffen Berger, a premium brand chocolate, is growing rapidly and must decide where and when to add capacity in the production line and with what technology. The company must consider the demands of marketing, the impact on quality and reputation, and the economics of alternative approaches to increasing output in both the short term and long term. Provides an opportunity for students to examine the existing process technology and flow, to understand the determinants of product quality, and to make recommendations about changes that will expand the capabilities of the firm in supplying its premium products to a rapidly growing market segment.
Exel plc is a global third-party logistics provider, serving clients such as Home Depot, Dell, Unilever, and Marks & Spencer. Describes the range of activities Exel performs for its clients and the capabilities the company has developed. Exel traditionally focused on freight management and contract logistics services and is now considering providing supply chain planning services. Management believes that there is tremendous potential in combining supply chain planning with supply chain execution. However, there are risks involved in entering the new business. Describes the decision in the context of Exel's two-decade relationship with Haus Mart, a leading retailer of home textiles, housewares, and home accessories in Germany.
Describes the procedures and processes used by Cisco Systems in its acquisition of high-technology firms. Its goal is to retain key engineering talent and to leverage existing product development efforts, but to quickly merge acquired companies its own systems and procedures. In addition to describing the general approach used by Cisco, this case describes some of the specifics involving its acquisition of Summa Four, a designer/manufacturer of a related product line, whose major activities are located in New England.
Describes the creation and operation of the initial two heavyweight teams for new drug development and launch. The primary focus is on one of the teams, Evista, although comparisons to the other team, Zyprexa, are included. Lilly must decide the next phase (postlaunch) for managing Evista's rollout.