In late July 2018, a buy-side analyst at Dimensional Wealth Group (DWG), a privately owned investment management firm, needed to decide whether DWG should increase, decrease, or not change its position in Harley-Davidson Inc. (Harley-Davidson) stock. DWG had been bullish on its Harley-Davidson stock, leading DWG to increase its position in Harley-Davidson substantially over time. However, Harley-Davidson was currently facing several challenges, which suggested that the timing was appropriate for DWG to reconsider its bullish position. How should the analyst determine a suitable recommendation regarding the Harley-Davidson stock?
In early April 2018, Spotify Technology SA (Spotify) had planned a rare direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange. Unlike typical initial public offerings (IPOs), which used investment banks as underwriters to help set an IPO price, Spotify’s direct listing would allow market participants to determine the initial price. In a typical IPO, investment banks shopped the potential offer to various clients and, in the process of book building, determined a range for the offer when it started trading. They also often provided support for the issue on the day it started to trade, limiting the downside for shareholders if demand was low. In Spotify’s case, the investment banks were only being paid a nominal fee, and Spotify was not raising capital in the offering. The stock simply started trading on the prescribed day. A portfolio manager with a hedge fund that focused on growing technology companies was considering investing in the firm, but faced a challenge: how could she estimate Spotify’s value when it started to trade?
In January 2012, Alberta-based energy infrastructure business, AltaGas Ltd. (AltaGas),was considering the purchase of U.S.-based green energy power producer Decker Energy International, Inc. The move into renewable energy and into the United States would be a departure for AltaGas, which was primarily focused on traditional energy and infrastructure businesses in Canada. The financial lead on the acquisition project was looking at the assumptions provided. His task was to value the U.S. power producer’s assets and provide feedback on issues that could affect the deal.
This note provides an overview of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and addresses the methods used to value companies undergoing an IPO. It begins with a brief introduction to IPOs and the rationale behind going public, followed by an analysis of IPOs from the investor’s perspective. Next, the IPO process is outlined and explained, including the underwriter choice, selling procedure, pricing and activities in the aftermarket. Lastly, the note examines the valuation methodology used in the pricing stage of IPOs. This includes the discounted cash flow method, the use of market multiples of comparable firms, as well as other situational considerations when determining the initial price per share range and final offering price.
It is year-end 2013 and management at Gabriel Resources, a Canadian junior mining corporation, is attempting to handle investor relations and political tensions surrounding its Rosia Montana mine project in Romania. Recently, the Romanian Parliament voted overwhelmingly against granting the final permit for the gold and silver mine until a more thorough environmental and legal framework is established. Although the company promises that its project will bring significant financial benefits to the state and needed infrastructure improvements and employment in the region, both national and international civilian and non-governmental organizations have protested vociferously against a development that they see harming not only the fragile geographic ecosystem but also historical artifacts that have been a major tourist draw. The draft bill was set to allow the company to begin work on developing the potentially lucrative mine, which has been 15 years in the making and has not yet generated any revenues. Investors are worried and the company’s share price is sinking. How can the company calm shareholder panic and negative stock price movement? What can it do to persuade the Romanian government and people to support the mine? Spreadsheet for students is available, see 7B14N025.
An investment analyst needs to recommend whether her firm should become an institutional investor in HudBay Minerals Inc., which is nearing completion of an acquisition to purchase another mining company, Norsemont Mining Inc.
The chief financial officer (CFO) of Inmet Mining Corporation is considering the pricing and structure of a $500 million bond offering in late 2012. The company required capital to fully fund construction at its biggest asset, the Cobre Panama copper mine, which had been estimated at $6.2 billion dollars. Now, it was preparing yet another bond offering that would ensure these capital cost requirements would be met. Complicating matters was the fact that a competitor, First Quantum Minerals, had made a $70 per share offer to purchase the company in November 2012. The CFO has to weigh options and structure the bond offering accordingly.
A portfolio manager for Penhall Investment Funds was reviewing the financial data his team had prepared on Lenovo Group Limited (Lenovo), one of the major holdings in Penhall’s Global fund. Lenovo wanted to become more than just the largest manufacturer of PCs by volume. It aimed to become a leader in other devices, such as smartphones and tablets, and it was focusing on innovation as a key capability. The portfolio manager was impressed by Lenovo’s results so far; the stock was up 7.5 per cent in a year. However, given the decline in the traditional PC segment, the competitive nature of the industry and global economic conditions, he wondered if Lenovo should continue to be a key holding in the global fund.
Senior management of a large stock exchange is reviewing a recent software problem that resulted in a botched opening for the initial public offering of a popular social media company. They are drawing up a list of recommendations on how to prevent this type of failure in the future, taking into account the needs of their various stakeholders, including customers, market makers, listed firms, regulators and shareholders. Overviews of the stock market, NASDAQ in particular, and the use of technology to trade stocks securely and quickly are followed by examining the aftermath of a delay in the correct trading of Facebook shares on its opening.
A buy-side analyst for an investment company that has a company-specific, fundamentals-based investing philosophy is considering whether to include a small-cap Canadian company engaged in commodity streaming contracts in the mining sector as a significant investment. The analyst must first learn what commodity streaming involves to better understand whether the company has a viable business model. He also has to research the copper and natural gas industry outlooks. He must then develop a net asset value model to determine an appropriate valuation for the company.
It was May 16, 2012, and the highly anticipated pricing of Facebook Inc.’s initial public offering (IPO) was underway. An analyst at CXTechnology Fund was preparing to speak to the lead underwriter about his final interest in the deal. The analyst had reviewed Facebook’s phenomenal growth, its profitable business model and the competitive landscape for the social networking industry. The IPO appeared to be oversubscribed with heavy interest from institutional and retail investors alike, but the valuation seemed expensive, even by technology standards. The analyst needed to make a decision on whether to buy shares in the IPO or not. A spreadsheet for students is available, product 7B12N031.