In early 2016, stock markets around the world plummeted, raising the threat of another major depression enveloping the world. In their struggle to recover from the post-2008 global recession, many nations had expanded their money supply and lowered interest rates, with the aim of stimulating both consumer spending and corporate investment. While some of this monetary expansion increased production and employment, much of it created bubbles in asset prices, especially in the prices of equities. Investors faced such low returns from bonds and other fixed-income assets that they poured their funds into equities, which increased price-earnings ratios to exceptional levels. This bubble in stock prices amplified the risks of a severe crash. What could-and should-governments do to avoid a significant stock market crash and a global depression?
In early 2016, stock markets around the world plummeted, raising the threat of another major depression enveloping the world. In their struggle to recover from the post-2008 global recession, many nations had expanded their money supply and lowered interest rates, with the aim of stimulating both consumer spending and corporate investment. While some of this monetary expansion increased production and employment, much of it created bubbles in asset prices, especially in the prices of equities. Investors faced such low returns from bonds and other fixed-income assets that they poured their funds into equities, which increased price-earnings ratios to exceptional levels. This bubble in stock prices amplified the risks of a severe crash. What could—and should—governments do to avoid a significant stock market crash and a global depression?
This follow-up to Chauvco Resources Ltd.: The Argentina Decisions (A) and (B) encourages students to analyze Argentina’s macroeconomic policies in 2012. Of particular interest are the lessons for Greece if it exits from the Eurozone, with the perhaps inevitable pursuit of the Argentine paradigm.
This case builds upon Bank Vozrozhdeniye (V.Bank) (A) and (B), bringing the subject up to the year 2012. The (C) case again encourages students to balance economic and political risks against the likely increase in future profitability.
By 2011, many nations had experienced an escalation in deficits and debt. It appeared that some might not be able to service their debt, and might have to default. The United States a budget crisis in which "left-wing liberal" Democrats wanted to raise taxes on the wealthy while "right-winged conservative" Republicans wanted to cut expenditures. A philosophical divide existed over the role of personal responsibility versus the role of government. In the European Union, the "PIIGS" - Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain - seemed on the verge of default, and other members of the euro zone created new loan programs to assist them in their budget crisis. However, these loans included a requirement to move towards balanced budgets. Citizens in the borrowing nations objected to the severe tax increases and expenditure cuts, while citizens of the successful nations asked why they should have to pay. It was not clear who would bear the burden of reducing the deficits and debt.
By 2011, many nations had experienced an escalation in deficits and debt. It appeared that some might be unable to service their debt, and might have to default. The United States had a budget crisis in which “left-wing liberal” Democrats wanted to raise taxes on the wealthy while “right-wing conservative” Republicans wanted to cut expenditures. A philosophical divide existed over the role of personal responsibility versus the role of government. In the European Union, the “PIIGS” — Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain — seemed on the verge of default, and other members of the eurozone created new loan programs to assist them in their budget crises. However, these loans included a requirement to move towards balanced budgets. Citizens in the borrowing nations objected to the severe tax increases and expenditure cuts, while citizens of the successful nations asked why they should have to pay. It was not clear who would bear the burden of reducing the deficits and debt.
Beginning in the 1990s, Wal-Mart sought to maintain its rapid growth by investing outside of the United States. It chose to enter other countries through the purchase of existing retail chains. This process created a new set of challenges, since the existing chains had their own corporate cultures and operating procedures, and Wal-Mart experienced several surprising defeats. In 2000, Wal-Mart launched a chain of what it called Neighborhood Markets, limited to the sale of groceries. Meanwhile, its Latin American acquisitions included stores of only 4,000 square feet. In 2010, Wal-Mart announced a strategy to create a major chain of mini-Supercenters, each of some 40,000 to 60,000 square feet, to be located within cities. Some of the new smaller stores would be focused on local ethnic groups, with Hispanic neighborhoods being an obvious target for this paradigm. In addition to the need to change its inventory levels and to rely on parking buildings rather than large parking lots, Wal-Mart encountered strong opposition from labour unions. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart was using its new small-format stores in China. It was also experimenting with online grocery sales with home delivery. Wal-Mart was continuing to cut costs by consolidating its global purchases and shifting to more global supply chains with the elimination of many wholesalers. At the same time, Wal-Mart was taking a dramatic position in compelling its suppliers to adopt green practices, conducting audits of its suppliers, and refusing to purchase from those who failed to measure up to new environmental standards.
In 1992, the United Nations (UN) Convention on Climate Change urged UN members to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to limit global warming and climate change. In 1997, international negotiations established the Kyoto Treaty in which 160 signatory nations agreed to achieve specific reductions by the period 2008 to 2012. While the overall commitment was to reduce GHG emissions to a level 5.2 per cent lower than 1990 levels, nations committed to different percentage reductions. Each signatory would determine how it wished to reach its target, and no penalties were threatened to those who might not reach their goal. By 2001, when the time came to ratify the treaty, various credits were provided to some nations for carbon sinks, particularly for existing forests. Even with such concessions, the United States refused to sign, as did most developing nations. The Kyoto Protocol proceeded at very different speeds in different nations. International negotiations in Copenhagen in 2009 and in Cancun in 2010 attempted to add clarity to the intentions of signatories. However, many significant details had not yet been addressed. Future negotiations in Rangoon and elsewhere would be necessary.
Governments throughout the world have offered subsidies for a wide variety of reasons, including increasing investments and jobs (particularly those that are high-tech), stimulating economically depressed regions, supporting domestic agriculture, and preventing bankruptcies through “bail-outs.” Subsidies now play a key role in business location decisions, and impact international competitiveness. Recipients of subsidies can offer their goods and services for sale at lower prices than would exist in the absence of subsidies. Foreign-based corporations may regard these lower prices as unfair competition in international trade. Consequently, international trade negotiations have come to focus on many of these subsidy programs as trade distortions that should be limited by formal international agreements. Some countries, especially the United States, impose special countervail duties if their corporations are being hurt by foreign subsidies. With current and projected reductions in trade barriers, subsidies will become relatively more important as a trade-determining process. Nevertheless, subsidies are implemented to pursue certain social objectives, and so an intergovernmental pact that limits subsidies may diminish, rather than improve, the well being of signatories.
Governments throughout the world have offered subsidies for a wide variety of reasons, including the objectives of increasing investments and jobs, particularly those that are high-tech, stimulating economically depressed regions, supporting domestic agriculture, and preventing bankruptcies through "bail-outs." Subsidies now play a key role in business location decisions, and impact their international competitiveness. Recipients of subsidies can offer their goods and services for sale at lower prices than would exist in the absence of subsidies. Foreign-based corporations may regard these lower prices as unfair competition in international trade. Consequently, international trade negotiations have come to focus on many of these subsidy programs as trade distortions that should be limited by formal international agreements. Some countries, especially the US, impose special countervail duties if their corporations are being hurt by foreign subsidies. With current and projected reductions in trade barriers, subsidies will become relatively more important as a trade-determining process. Nevertheless, subsidies are implemented to pursue certain social objectives, and so an intergovernmental pact that limits subsidies may diminish, rather that improve, the well-being of signatories.
Beginning in the 1990s, Wal-Mart sought to maintain its rapid growth by investing outside of the United States. Wal-Mart chose to enter other countries through the purchase of existing retail chains. This process created a new set of challenges, since the existing chains had their own corporate cultures and operating procedures. Wal-Mart experienced several surprising defeats. In 2000, Wal-Mart launched a chain of what it called "Neighborhood Markets," limited to the sale of groceries. Meanwhile, its Latin American acquisitions included stores of only 4,000 square feet. In 2010, Wal-Mart announced a strategy to create a major chain of mini-Supercentres, each of some 40,000 to 60,000 square feet, to be located within cities. Some of the new smaller stores would be focused on local ethnic groups. Hispanic neighborhoods were an obvious target for this paradigm. In addition to the need to change its inventory levels, and to rely on parking buildings rather than large parking lots, Wal-Mart encountered strong opposition from labour unions. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart was using its new small-format stores in China. Wal-Mart was also experimenting with on-line grocery sales with home delivery. Wal-Mart was continuing to cut costs by consolidating its global purchases, shifting to more global supply chains with the elimination of many wholesalers. At the same time, Wal-Mart was taking a dramatic position in compelling its suppliers to adopt "green" practices, conducting audits of its suppliers and refusing to purchase from those who failed to measure up to new environmental standards.
In 1992, the United Nations (UN) Convention on Climate Change urged UN members to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to limit global warming and climate change. In 1997, international negotiations established the Kyoto Treaty in which 160 signatory nations agreed to achieve specific reductions by the period 2008 to 2012. While the overall commitment was to reduce GHG emissions to a level 5.2 per cent lower than 1990 levels, nations committed to various percentage reductions. Each signatory would determine how it wished to reach its target, and no penalties were threatened to those who might not reach their goal. By 2001, when the time came to ratify the treaty, various credits were provided to some nations for "carbon sinks," particularly for existing forests. Even with such concessions, the United States refused to sign, and so did most developing nations. The Kyoto protocol proceeded at very different speeds in different nations. International negotiations in Copenhagen in 2009 and in Cancun in 2010 attempted to add clarity to the intentions of signatories. However, many significant details had not yet been addressed. Future negotiations in Rangoon and elsewhere would be necessary.
The most recent recessionary period and credit crisis has precipitated discussions on the importance of stable financial systems. Many national governments are considering enacting stricter regulation on financial markets and bank liquidity. National and international supervisors will implement regulatory adjustments through coordinated efforts or independently in the next few years. There will be major developments in the banking industry within the near future.<br><br>This case provides a structure for discussing past international efforts to coordinate a strengthening of banking systems. The primary focus is the 2010 Basel negotiation to create new and more extensive internationally accepted regulations. Students can be encouraged to debate the basic concept of international rules, as well as possible versions of these rules. A central message is that such negotiations will likely continue indefinitely. China, India and other emerging nations have indicated that they are not prepared to enforce the 2010 Basel III. Furthermore, the process of analyzing banks' financial reports in order to develop evaluations of their position vis-Ã -vis the rules will likely be a long and complex process.<br><br>With each of the major issues, this case presents the rationales for change and the strengths of Basel III's provisions, as well as the weaknesses of the proposed changes.
In the 1990s, considerable debate arose concerning the strength and stability of China's banks. Of particular concern were the debts owed to the banks by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Many SOEs were experiencing financial difficulties and so they might not have been able to repay these loans. Some analysts emphasized that, since the banks and the SOEs were both owned by the government, the only relevant concern was the financial strength of the government and its preparedness to take responsibility for any of the banks' non-performing loans. In the early years of the 21st century, the government undertook a widespread program aimed at improving the balance sheets at the banks by purchasing non-performing loans from the banks and then reselling these at a discount, often to foreign private sector financial institutions. Prior to 2010, this process provided a generally accepted faith in the stability and security of China's banks. Total non-performing loans as a per cent of total bank loans decreased from 20 per cent in 2003 to three per cent in 2008. The year 2010 brought a new realization that the non-performing loan problem had reappeared. However, China's banks now had private as well as government shareholders, and so the solution had become more complex. The government's response was to insist that China's banks increase their capital base by issuing new equity.
The most recent recessionary period and credit crisis has precipitated discussions on the importance of stable financial systems. Many national governments are considering enacting stricter regulation on financial markets and bank liquidity. National and international supervisors will implement regulatory adjustments through coordinated efforts or independently in the next few years. There will be major developments in the banking industry within the near future.<br><br>This case provides a structure for discussing past international efforts to coordinate a strengthening of banking systems. The primary focus is the 2010 Basel negotiation to create new and more extensive internationally accepted regulations. Students can be encouraged to debate the basic concept of international rules, as well as possible versions of these rules. A central message is that such negotiations will likely continue indefinitely. China, India and other emerging nations have indicated that they are not prepared to enforce the 2010 Basel III. Furthermore, the process of analyzing banks’ financial reports in order to develop evaluations of their position vis-à-vis the rules will likely be a long and complex process.<br><br>With each of the major issues, this case presents the rationales for change and the strengths of Basel III’s provisions, as well as the weaknesses of the proposed changes.
In the 1990s, considerable debate arose concerning the strength and stability of China's banks. Of particular concern were the debts owed to the banks by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Many SOEs were experiencing financial difficulties and so they might not have been able to repay these loans. Some analysts emphasized that, since the banks and the SOEs were both owned by the government, the only relevant concern was the financial strength of the government and its preparedness to take responsibility for any of the banks' non-performing loans. In the early years of the 21st century, the government undertook a widespread program aimed at improving the balance sheets at the banks by purchasing non-performing loans from the banks and then reselling these at a discount, often to foreign private sector financial institutions. Prior to 2010, this process provided a generally accepted faith in the stability and security of China's banks. Total non-performing loans as a per cent of total bank loans decreased from 20 per cent in 2003 to three per cent in 2008. The year 2010 brought a new realization that the non-performing loan problem had reappeared. However, China's banks now had private as well as government shareholders, and so the solution had become more complex. The government's response was to insist that China's banks increase their capital base by issuing new equity.
For more than a decade, the government of China had sought to develop an automotive industry. The government's initial steps involved the creation of joint ventures in which government-owned firms became partners of foreign privately owned corporations. Most of these joint ventures were extremely successful financially. However, ongoing differences in management preferences created a continual tension within the joint ventures. Of particular concern was a desire of the government of China to ensure that its new automotive industry would adopt the latest advances in technologies. This subject of technology transfer, and how the government of China could best support it, became a central issue in China's automotive industry. From the perspective of the government of China, Geely's acquisition of Volvo would be a major step in achieving technology transfer on an ongoing basis. Geely's China operations would be able to quickly and easily adopt Volvo's cutting-edge safety features and production operations. From Geely's perspective, the Volvo acquisition would provide it with a new set of luxury vehicles for sale in China that would fill a gap in Geely's automotive lineup. Nevertheless, Geely faced the challenge that Ford had continually lost money in Volvo. How to reverse these losses would become a major challenge for Geely.
For more than a decade, the government of China had sought to develop an automotive industry. The government's initial steps involved the creation of joint ventures in which government-owned firms became partners of foreign privately owned corporations. Most of these joint ventures were extremely successful financially. However, ongoing differences in management preferences created a continual tension within the joint ventures. Of particular concern was a desire of the government of China to ensure that its new automotive industry would adopt the latest advances in technologies. This subject of technology transfer, and how the government of China could best support it, became a central issue in China's automotive industry. From the perspective of the government of China, Geely's acquisition of Volvo would be a major step in achieving technology transfer on an ongoing basis. Geely's China operations would be able to quickly and easily adopt Volvo's cutting-edge safety features and production operations. From Geely's perspective, the Volvo acquisition would provide it with a new set of luxury vehicles for sale in China that would fill a gap in Geely's automotive lineup. Nevertheless, Geely faced the challenge that Ford had continually lost money in Volvo. How to reverse these losses would become a major challenge for Geely.
By 2010, China's economy faced a series of challenges that could threaten its growth and trade balance. This case presents a structure for students to discuss China's economy in the context of these threats. Prior to this time, there had been general feeling that China could continue indefinitely with its exceptionally high growth rate of approximately 10 per cent annually. The substantial gap between wages in economically advanced nations and China might continue to attract huge volumes of foreign investment indefinitely. This optimism was being questioned by 2010.