In 2015, Modelo was tasked with growing sales from 50 million cases to 100 million cases within five years. Imported from Tacuba, Mexico, the brand had a solid and loyal following of Hispanic beer drinkers. To achieve more than double sales growth, however, the brand needed a broader target. The brand aimed to grow by targeting a more general market around the idea that the product was associated with a fighting spirit. In 2016 the brand ran two campaigns, one directed at the general market and one at the Hispanic market. The results were encouraging, but the brand felt it needed to dig deeper and find a more robust insight to achieve further growth.

In 2014, Merrick Pet Care saw an opportunity to enter the oral pet care category by introducing dental brushes for dogs. Although its close connections with retailers allowed the company to place the product on the shelves, the product sales were lackluster, and the initial entry was deemed unsuccessful. The brand had to decide whether or not to continue devoting resources to the oral pet care category. If the answer was yes, the company had to find out how to succeed in the face of the initial unsuccessful launch.

Certainty profoundly shapes our behavior. The more certain we are of a belief--regardless of its objective correctness--the greater its influence will be on what we do. People who are certain of their opinions are more likely to buy, buy sooner, and spend more; more willing to recommend products; and more apt to resist challenges to their beliefs. Certainty is the catalyst that turns attitudes into action. Imagine that two customers flying Virgin America give the carrier the same high rating--a 9 out of 10--on a satisfaction survey. Most marketers, seeing that the customers are both highly satisfied, assume they'll behave similarly--that they're equally likely to fly Virgin America again, recommend it to friends, and so on. But their behavior depends less on their stated opinion than on how firmly they hold it. Suppose that one of the Virgin customers is a frequent flier and has had reliably good experiences. She is likely to be very certain of her favorable attitude and to remain a loyal customer. The other may have flown just once on the carrier. She's probably less certain of her opinion--wondering whether future experiences would be different--and therefore less likely than the frequent flier to choose Virgin again. They may hold the same view, but if one of them is more certain of that view than the other, she'll be the better customer. Despite the voluminous body of research on the influence of certainty on behavior, it is poorly understood in business and rarely measured or put to use.

In 2009-2010 Procter & Gamble's Old Spice brand had to respond to two important challenges. First, after a successful rebranding of the Glacial Falls scent into Swagger (see Kellogg Case #5-411-752), Old Spice's core brand team had to determine its next step in advertising. The options being considered included continuing to advertise Swagger, switching to advertising a different scent, advertising the umbrella brand, or placing an emphasis on body wash instead of on deodorant. This decision also involved proposing both the messaging and the media buy for the option selected. Second, in conjunction with this issue, the brand team had to decide whether the messaging of its advertising should respond to competitor Unilever's new advertising for Dove for Men, which would be kicked off in an upcoming Super Bowl spot. Students will step into the shoes of Mauricio O'Connell-one of the assistant brand managers of Old Spice-as he and his team brainstorm how to position the brand for another big success.

This case features Old Spice's efforts to reposition Glacial Falls after sales stagnated in the United States. The challenges in this case are twofold. First, it sets the stage for deciding whether and how to reposition a brand after a period of significant stagnation. This entails a targeting dilemma about whether to keep existing customers or take the risk of losing them to go after a new target. Second, this case examines whether the company should make a sensory change in the product (i.e., the scent) or whether it should undertake a cognitive change in the positioning of the product instead.