Describes decision analysis, a systemic approach for analyzing decision problems. A running example illustrates problem structuring (decision trees), probability assessment and endpoint evaluation, folding back the tree as a method of analysis, and sensitivity analysis.
In the early 1990s, Tweeter etc., a small regional retailer of higher-end audio and video equipment, faced increasing competitive pricing pressures from several large regional and national consumer electronics chains. In response, in 1993, they introduced "Automatic Price Protection" (APP) as the cornerstone of a strategy to restore price credibility in the minds of consumers. Under APP, Tweeter monitored local newspaper ads and automatically mailed a refund check to a consumer if an item purchased at Tweeter was advertised for a lower price by a competitor. Three years later, in 1996, Tweeter is questioning the impact of APP on their current competitive positioning. More importantly, with the pending entry of another major discount chain, Tweeter is forced to question how effective APP will be in a market increasingly dominated by large discount retailers.
Two exercises designed to illustrate the relationship between BATNAs (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) and reservation prices and three exercises that illustrate the central ideas of Pareto efficiency are presented. The BATNA exercises involve multiple negotiated alternatives and uncertainty. The Pareto efficiency exercises illustrate the value of side payments and differential valuation of issues in the creation of joint gains.
Two psychological traps, anchoring and framing, and their role in negotiation are described. The anchoring section describes how first or opening offers can be used effectively in negotiation. Examines how opening offers serve as an anchor, changing one side's perception of the other side's bottom line and hence the set of possible outcomes. The framing section describes how framing--alternative description of an object, event, or situation--can be used effectively in negotiation. Uses a real-estate dialogue to illustrate three common varieties of framing: losses versus gains, short and long horizons, and aggregation and segregation.
A second-year Harvard MBA student considers the pros and cons of three job offers. He identifies several concerns and evaluates each job in terms of how well they meet these concerns. He assesses probabilities for whether the jobs will be successful for him.
Presents two methodologies for making decisions in the face of conflicting objectives, pricing out, and additive scoring systems. This material is followed by four exercises designed to develop and test understanding of the basic methodology. The exercises include an MBA who must make a job decision, an MIS manager choosing a database program, and an office manager who must select an office site.
Involves seven canonical decision problems--basic problems in management that arise with surprising frequency. Although these exercises are simplified versions of these problems, they have been written to preserve the "essence" of the decision situations. The problems include product development sequencing, options for flexibility, market research, litigation, inventory decisions under uncertainty, bidding decisions, and choosing among theories.
Presents two basic principles that underlie the creation of joint gains. Four sources of joint gains--differences in interests, opinion, risk preference, and time preference--are discussed, and simple examples are provided to illustrate the basic concepts.
Describes how first or opening offers can be used effectively in negotiation. Examines how opening offers serve as an anchor, changing one side's perception of the other side's bottom line and hence the set of possible outcomes.
How can framing--alternative description of an object, event, or situation--can be used effectively in negotiation? A real estate dialog is used to illustrate three common varieties of framing: losses versus gains; short and long horizons; and aggregation and segregation.
The Polish government is privatizing Cementownia Odra, a cement firm. Tomasz Budziak, a team leader, is negotiating on behalf of the Polish Ministry of Privatization. Hans-Hugo Miebach, owner of a German cement company, has made an attractive offer; a deal hinges on several issues concerning potential liabilities, a Polish tax credit, land acquisition, and the import of refuse-derived fuel. The case is designed as a simulation in which students actually negotiate, either as Budziak or Miebach, and the need to make contingent arrangements arises naturally. For both Budziak and Miebach, there is uncertainty, sometimes quite substantial, about the extent of liabilities, the likelihood of a tax credit, and the possibility of acquiring requisite quarry land. Provides general information on the Odra negotiation.
Reyem Affiar is interested in buying a condominium in Cambridge, Mass. Can data on previous condominium sales inform him on how to bid for the condo? The case includes 1990--1994 data on Cambridge condominium sales (nearly 500 records).
Edgar Scherick, a leading television movie producer, must determine whether fact-based movies garner higher Nielsen ratings than fictional movies. Scherick has data for all 1992 TV movies broadcast on major networks. Ultimately, Scherick must decide whether it is worthwhile to pay for the option for the rights to fact-based movies.
Colonial Broadcasting, a major American television network, must determine whether fact-based television movies garner higher Nielsen ratings than movies based on fictional concepts. Furthermore, the network must decide whether to accept a fixed-fee advertising contract or a sliding-scale contract.