Wilford Marshall is preparing recommendations to Petrosupra Exploration (Petrosupra), an independent oil and gas company, regarding a drilling project in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, on the Gulf Coast. This was an opportunity to take over Coyote Oil's drilling rights and drill within a year. If oil was found, two years following that, Petrosupra would have the additional opportunity to initiate enhanced recovery, which could provide an additional stream of oil. To evaluate the contract, Marshall will consider the path that oil prices will take and the amount of oil discovered. Enhanced recovery is a real option for which Marshall must think about a decision rule for the downstream decision and the optimal trigger point for such a rule. All the uncertainties and this option will be simulated to determine the value of (a) the rights to the well and (b) the value of the enhanced recovery option. Claiborne Chemical (CC) affords the opportunity to reduce the exposure to quantity and price uncertainty that is generated by the well. The beauty of swapping an interest in Petrosupra's well for an interest in the CC opportunity is that it exchanges an exposure to oil price for an opposite exposure to the price of a fuel additive that is negatively correlated to oil price. With some analysis of the risks and the best exchange shares, the project risk can be reduced dramatically.
The Pelayo family has been studying roulette wheels and collecting data on tens of thousands of spins. Now the Pelayos have identified a wheel that they want to bet on, which has six numbers that have a 1/30 probability of winning instead of 1/37. They have staked EUR1,000 on this wheel. The question is: How much should they bet in order to have the most capital after 200 rounds? Log utility is used to compare alternatives and find an optimal bet.
This note describes a method for adjusting uncertain future cash flows into a present certain equivalent. The use of net present value (NPV) to adjust a stream of future known cash flows into a single-value equivalent adjusted for the time value of money is common practice. The use of simulation to produce a risk profile of NPV values is also now common. While the expected net present value (ENPV) is often used to convert a risk profile of uncertain NPVs into a single-value equivalent, this approach ignores risk and the decision maker's attitude toward risk. Simply put, a 50% probability of receiving an NPV of $1 million is not as attractive as a 100% chance of receiving an NPV of $500,000. The general logarithmic utility model (GLUM) constructs a single certain equivalent from a risk profile (i.e., a "risk-adjusted NPV") which goes beyond ENPV to incorporate risk aversion into the decision-making criterion. The simplicity and many attractive properties of the GLUM prompt us to suggest it as more attractive than other ways to adjust an NPV risk profile for risk.
The case presents data from 70,340 spins of four roulette wheels: three of which are real ("imperfect") and one of which is simulated ("perfect"). The challenge posed is to identify which of the four is the simulated wheel. After weeks spent recording spin results at their local casino, the members of the Pelayo family think they have identified three imperfect wheels. Before they start betting, they want to be certain that the three wheels they identified as imperfect are easily distinguishable from a theoretically perfect wheel. This case has been used successfully in Darden's MBA elective about data analysis. That course introduced pivot tables and the chi-squared goodness-of-fit test using the case "The Roulette Wheel." Discussion of "The Pelayo Family Plays Roulette" probably will not require an entire class period. One option would be to hand out the case during the discussion of "The Roulette Wheel" as something of a follow-on.
The weather team at Nephila Capital Ltd. (Nephila) was in the midst of the weather market's busy winter renewal period. The list of weather risk transfer contracts that needed to be analyzed and priced seemed to be growing by the minute, and one team member is devising a plan to price each deal on its own merits of risk/reward. The counterparty's bid would reflect the willingness of the contracting party to pay for a weather hedge, and none would pay more than the bid amount. Nephila wanted to meet the needs of each counterparty, but only if Nephila earned a requisite return on capital. If the bid amount were not high enough to be attractive to Nephila, the team would need to convey that news to the counterparties. Did these new deal opportunities offer something more to Nephila beyond their individual numbers?
Modeled loosely after the American restaurant chain Chipotle, Picante Mexican Grill seeks to offer fresh and healthy vegetarian fast-food options. The owners of this start-up chain in Gurgaon, India, struggle to manage their quickly growing operation. As they consider expanding into new locations, diverse issues-including determining store hours, location, managing centralized production, and meeting staffing needs-challenge the entrepreneurial trio.
This case, follows Ali Hurbas's efforts to use data extracted from the Dunia data warehouse to establish potential customers' customer lifetime value (CLV). Hurbas plans to use a spreadsheet model to evaluate Dunia's various cross-selling activities and their effectiveness in creating the greatest CLV. First, students should explain how the spreadsheet reflects the way in which Dunia makes money from cross-selling. Then students should use the spreadsheet to conduct what-if analysis to see how combinations of activities might improve total CLV, and sensitivity analysis to understand how cost parameters and other parameters would affect profitability. A teaching note for this case series is available to instructors to aid in class preparation.
This case series is appropriate for undergraduate, MBA, executive education, and MBA Exec audiences but is specifically designed for decision analysis, a first-year MBA core course. The Part II case affords the opportunity to examine downstream decisions and a real option regarding how fast to harvest the fish when the virus hits. Monte Carlo simulation would be used to incorporate uncertainties about when the virus hits, if it hits, and mortality, and to generate the risk profile of contribution for the option alternatives and to compare whether to use 1 or 2 squads to harvest the fish. Based on the simulation results, an evaluation will be made of what to pay for the option.
This case series is appropriate for undergraduate, MBA, executive education, and MBA Exec audiences but is specifically designed for decision analysis, a first-year MBA core course. In the Part I case, Osvaldo Correa, CEO of Salmones Puyuhuapi (SP), must decide how to respond to news that the ISA virus has infected a competitor's salmon farming site. The alternatives include harvesting SP's 900,000 salmon two months early, waiting for the fish to grow and risk losing fish to the virus, and vaccinating the fish. The "harvest now" alternative is evaluated using normally distributed fish weights. It is necessary to account for monthly growth of the fish and mortality to value the ends of the decision tree. Other alternatives, e.g. testing the water, fish, and marine life can be studied with the expected value of perfect information. Vaccination is an example of the value of perfect control.
The managing director of a steel plant faces the decision of how much of each raw material to order for the plant for the following month. Due to lower and upper bounds on the amounts of each raw material in a batch and varying amounts of electricity and time consumed for different raw materials, one can't simply use the cheapest raw material. A linear program and the solver optimization function of Excel will provide the optimal amounts that meet the constraints. Interestingly, the best mixture for a batch is not the best mixture for a monthly plan. Shadow prices indicate the value of relaxing constraints. The typical monthly model from a student will be nonlinear, although it can be written as a linear model. This case provides the basis for an introductory class on linear programming and linear versus nonlinear models.
Jane Barrow, CEO of Caprica Energy, must recommend to the board which of three potential "unconventional" natural gas development sites in different parts of the United States the company should pursue. The case takes place in January 2011, when the "low-hanging fruit" of natural gas production in the United States had essentially been picked. All three of the potential sites (shale, coal bed methane, and tight sands) would require hydraulic fracturing, a process of removing gas that was formerly considered inaccessible by injecting water and chemicals into the ground. Because of emerging concerns about the potential harm "fracking" can do to drinking water, Barrow must not only analyze which site might be most profitable but also what the potential risks to the environment and area residents might be.
A Canadian online floral delivery company considers whether to source more flowers from its existing growing locations and which of those would be optimal given its current market. What would be the advantages of opening a logistics facility in Miami?
Suitable for MBA, EMBA, GEMBA, and executive education programs, this field-based case offers an opportunity to use simulation modeling to evaluate an investment affected by prices, technical success, and yields from raw materials that are all uncertain in a global context.
In this, the second of a two-case decision analysis series, an entrepreneur must decide whether there are additional benefits from operating in more than one U.S. city. He explores the business model of operating local production facilities in major cities, metro areas with a population of over one million. Going national in year three would allow for a year four launch. Again, the entrepreneur must choose between a discounted and a premium strategy. He must also consider how the U.S. national florists might react to whatever strategy he chooses. Student spreadsheets are available for both the A and the B cases.